Black Friday 2011 may look nothing like Good Friday 2012 when it comes to oil prices. However in the next 40 or so of the 133 days between now and then, we will see some of the cheapest gasoline prices since Ground Hog Day 2011.

  Let’s take a look at the current scorecard. Some observations:

-          Gasoline costs an average of $3.312 gal this Thanksgiving weekend, and that price will drift lower in the next few days. (For day-to-day updates, visit the AAA website at www.fuelgaugereport.com)

-          This autumn has brought the poorest gasoline demand since 2000. Domestic gasoline demand in the last four weeks has averaged just 8.6-million barrels per day, or approximately 361-million gallons per day. To put that number in perspective, average late November gasoline demand in 2006 and 2007 was 9.25-million barrels per day, or 388.5-million gallons per day.

-          Thanks in part to more moderate prices and to lower demand, the daily gasoline bill has dropped to below $1.2-billion. It was above $1.5-billion in early May. (with the aid of a cocktail napkin and lipstick, you can use the numbers in the first few bullets and make the current calculation)

-          There are now 23 states where one can find gasoline for less than $3 gal, without the aid of siphoning equipment or loyalty programs. That list includes Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Virginia, Utah, Texas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Ohio, and North Dakota.  Three other states - - -Florida, Maryland, and North Carolina - - are on the bubble and will probably see sub-$3 gal availability this month.

-          The average price for gasoline year-to-date is $3.5376 gal. Average daily demand so far in 2011 has been 8.964-million barrels per day, or 376.5-million gallons per day. Crunching the numbers on the back of the envelope or front of the cocktail napkin yields a cost to date of $1.332-billion, or just under $440-billion through the first 330 days of the year.

-          The last 35 days of 2011 might get close to the performance of the first 35 days when gasoline prices were barely above $3 gal.  For the sake of these voodoo calculations, I’ll say that we’ll average $3.25 gal through year’s end, with demand of about 8.9-million barrels per day. That adds up to an additional $42-billion to perhaps $44-billion of fuel costs, putting the total 2011 bill at about $484-billion. The previous record was 2008 when we spent about $448-billion.

-          Somewhere between Black Friday and Ground Hog Day, we’ll see gas prices bottom. That bottom becomes to launching pad for a spring rally that might add another $1 gal to wherever that bottom occurs. Under any circumstances, it will be a (thank you, Spinal Tap) big bottom.

-          January 2012 is a good candidate for that price bottom. The first month of this century (January 2000) has until now been the only month where U.S. gasoline demand averaged less than 8-million barrels per day (336-million gallons for you gallonistas). If January sees the heavy “cocooning” that comes with harsh weather, a gloomy economic picture, and midwinter austerity thanks to holiday overspending, we could see a flirtation with an eleven year demand low.

   There is nothing unusual in the prediction of a spring price spike. With the exception of 2003, you have to look back several decades to find a failure to launch for a gasoline price rally in April and May. Like Cubs fans, bullish gasoline traders chase their dreams each spring.

   With that out of the way, here are some questions (and answers) that might address some of the uncovered territory in the eight bullets above.

Q. It seems like yesterday that we heard crude has just topped $100 bbl. And yet, gasoline prices are falling faster than the Giants’ chances to make the playoffs. What gives?

A. There is no singular price of crude, just as there is no singular price of red wine. WTI crude oil futures briefly topped $100 bbl this month, but world crude oil has remained above $107 bbl, and WTI has slipped back into the mid-$90’s. Most coastal U.S. refiners are paying somewhere between $107-$110 bbl for crude.

   Reporters who overreacted when the price of WTI moving briefly above $100 bbl were guilty of extrapolating a particular into a universal. Imagine if political reporters in New Jersey looked at our Governor Chris Christie and incorrectly concluded that all governors weigh more than NFL linemen.

Q. Are refiners still making money on gasoline?

A. By and large, no. A refiner in Oklahoma, Kansas, the Rockies and North Dakota has access to cheaper crude, and they are probably eking out small gasoline margins. The price of wholesale gasoline is around $105 bbl in much of the country, so some inland refineries are making modest profits while coastal plants are selling gasoline at a loss.

Q. How can they sell gasoline at a loss?

A. Refiners are making beaucoup bucks on diesel fuel and heating oil, thanks to very strong demand for these products in world markets. The price of wholesale diesel has been around $3 gal, or about $126 bbl, so depending on what kind a crude a refiner processes, they are making anywhere from $15-$30 bbl on this product. Ultimately, they need to sell gasoline at a profitable level, so these economics need to be watched closely.

Q. I noticed that the vast majority of states with gasoline below $3 gal are “red states.” Is there a connection?

A. There is the same connection one sees if one looks at county maps that emphasize where population is clustered. Many of the states with prices over $3 gal require more difficult blends of gasoline, and have higher motor fuel taxes. But don’t be surprised to see illogical associations when fuel prices advance in the late winter and spring.

Q. Do you have any advice for people who use home heating oil?

A. Yes, buy a snuggie. Unfortunately, consumers dependent on home heating oil face a winter of extreme discontent with retail prices of close to $4 gal. For a family that uses 1,000 gal during the heating season, that cost can really cut into a household budget.

Q. Are there any good “voodoo” statistics that you can throw at us today?

A. Yes. My colleagues at OPIS have concluded that the average U.S. household purchases about 1159 gallons of gasoline each year. For the sake of argument, let’s say that we end 2011 with an average retail gasoline price of $3.50 gal (it will be within a couple of pennies of that number).

   At $3.50 gal, the average household will have paid about $4,056 for their motor fuel this year. Meanwhile, the median home value has sunk to about $162,500 (it topped out at $262,600 in March 2007, according to my research).

   In 2007, the average price of gasoline was $2.7892 gal, or about $3233 if you apply it to 1159 gallons of household purchases. In 2007, that expense wasn’t as considerable when measured against the equity in one’s home. Someone that owned their home outright might expect to pay about 1.2% of home value for their 2007 gasoline needs.

   In 2011, the $4,056 gal cost works out to about 2.5% of typical home value. So, measured against the wealth that Americans feel (or don’t feel) in their principle investment - - their home – the misery of high fuel prices has doubled.