June 1, 2009 -- RETAIL GASOLINE UP NEARLY 55% SINCE NEW YEAR’S DAY
I’ve shared my thoughts on this creation of a mini-bubble in the three or four most recent blog posts.
Today, I thought I’d just share this retail scorecard. It is sad to a great extent to see one of the most economically compromised states (Michigan) be the biggest loser in terms of higher fuel costs. Markets have no particular morality.
Here’s an update on the scorecard on June 1. This date can be a mixed bellwether for baseball (I do think the Yankees will finish in first in the American League East, but I do not see similar success in the Texas Ranger’s future). I don’t think it’s a particularly valuable bellwether for Summer gasoline - - wholesale prices on July 1 or August 1 or traditionally lower than they are on June 1.
Anyway, here’s the update:
RETAIL GASOLINE UP NEARLY 55% SINCE NEW YEAR’S DAY
Measured via percentage, the U.S. has never had five months that delivered as much of a retail upswing as the first five months of 2009.
Today’s OPIS daily retail price survey of pump prices conducted for AAA in cooperation with Wright Express shows a nationwide average of $2.512 gal this morning, up 88.6cts gal from the January 1 price of $1.626 gal, or some 54.5% higher on average than where prices began the year. Visit www.fuelgaugereport.com for details.
That is the largest five month retail advance this century, far exceeding the 37% increase seen in 2009 when prices eventually advanced as high as $4.11 gal by mid-summer. The pump price jumps, however, pale in comparison to the wholesale gasoline bounce. On December 24, 2008, gasoline futures contracts (RBOB) traded for below 79cts gal. This morning, gasoline futures have been trading around $1.91 gal, an increase of 142%.
Even larger increases have been seen in some wholesale markets. On Christmas Eve 2008, Chicago spot gasoline sold for less than 78cts gal. This morning, OPIS has confirmed spot sales for Chicago gasoline at $2.15 gal, an increase of more than 175% in a little over five months.
The severity of the spike in the Midwest explains why states like Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois - - hit hard by the recession and the auto manufacturing crisis - - have seen the largest retail increases of 2009. Pump prices in those three states are up more than $1.00 gal so far this year. The only other state to see a $1.00 gal or greater increase is Montana.
The smallest increases show up outside the continental U.S. Alaskan retail prices are up just 20.9% this year, and Hawaiian numbers have advanced only 48.6%. In the lower 48 states, Nevada has seen the smallest increase, but prices in that state are still up 70.2% since New Year.
2009 Retail Gasoline Spike
State Jan 1 Jun 1 Increase
AK 255.2 276.0 +20.9
AL 150.2 235.3 +85.1
AR 147.1 239.8 +92.8
AZ 159.4 236.0 +76.6
CA 185.1 275.9 +90.7
CO 151.8 244.2 +92.3
CT 174.2 263.0 +88.8
DC 170.2 254.8 +84.6
DE 153.9 242.4 +88.5
FL 164.4 248.7 +84.2
GA 151.4 235.4 +84.0
HI 231.8 280.4 +48.6
IA 162.3 251.7 +89.4
ID 153.9 242.8 +88.9
IL 168.5 270.4 +101.9
IN 161.7 261.7 +100.0
KS 153.6 245.1 +91.4
KY 157.4 250.7 +93.3
LA 151.4 238.1 +86.7
MA 162.6 245.8 +83.2
MD 158.2 244.7 +86.5
ME 171.1 252.7 +81.6
MI 166.1 275.8 +109.7
MN 161.8 256.5 +94.8
MO 139.6 236.8 +97.2
MS 147.6 235.3 +87.7
MT 148.4 252.0 +103.6
NC 156.9 243.3 +86.4
ND 169.9 256.7 +86.8
NE 165.3 258.3 +93.0
NH 160.9 241.8 +80.9
NJ 147.3 235.9 +88.7
NM 160.8 251.7 +90.9
NV 179.5 249.7 +70.2
NY 182.7 264.1 +81.3
OH 165.6 261.8 +96.3
OK 149.1 242.7 +93.6
OR 174.9 258.4 +83.5
PA 167.8 251.9 +84.0
RI 166.1 251.9 +85.8
SC 146.1 231.9 +85.7
SD 163.7 250.3 +86.7
TN 146.7 234.4 +87.7
TX 146.5 237.9 +91.4
US 161.8 251.2 +89.4
UT 146.4 234.6 +88.2
VA 151.5 237.6 +86.2
VT 166.7 244.9 +78.2
WA 180.9 268.4 +87.5
WI 169.5 267.8 +98.4
WV 172.5 260.0 +87.5
WY 143.5 237.2 +93.7