It’s a measurement of how drastically things have changed: today was as dull a day as you can find in the oil markets, but we still found time to trade more than 40-million barrels worth of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude; about 12-million barrels worth of heating oil; and perhaps about 6-million barrels worth of gasoline blendstock (RBOB futures). The action was about as dynamic as that Giants/Dolphins NFL game in London earlier this Fall, and I suspect we’ll see more of the same torpor through the rest of the week.

  (First point of reference:  A typical day in the oil futures markets in 2007 saw perhaps 500-million bbl of crude oil futures exchange hands; with 200-million barrel volumes commonplace for heating oil and gasoline. Second point of reference: the U.S. produces about 200-thousand barrels each day of WTI crude oil; we use perhaps a half million barrels per day of heating oil; and about 9.3-million barrels per day of various types of gasoline)

    There is one major difference between this Christmas and previous holiday weeks.  Nearly everyone I talk to in the physical or paper oil trading business is bullish about the prospects for a gasoline spike in 2008.  And these observers, analysts, and participants are not just mildly bullish --  there are wild eyed bulls in the U.S. and offshore. I’m oversimplifying here, but there are about three bullish traders for every intrepid company or individual willing to bet that gasoline prices might go lower in 2008. 

  That scares me, and I’ll have more to say on that sentimental extreme in comments I’ll post later in the week.  If you are among the reading public, I suggest you get a copy of David Denby’s book  - - American Sucker - - and you’ll learn how one can be surprised when markets don’t live up to the discourse and the sentiment.

   But for now, let me compare this Christmas week with some comparisons to similar weeks of the not-too-distant past.

   This week, we’ll use about 9.4-million barrels per day of gasoline, or 394.8-million gallons if you prefer.  The average price will be close to today’s number of $2.974 gal, so the weekly gasoline bill will add up to about $8.219-billion (or $1.174-billion per day).

  Last year, we used approximately 9.34-million barrels per day or 392.3-million gallons and the average price paid for the week was $2.3353 gal.  So the 2006 holiday gasoline bill was $6.413-billion on the week, or $916.1-million each day.

  In 2002, we used 8.881-million barrels per day or a nice even 373-million gallons and the average cost for Christmas week was $1.4074 gal. The weekly total that Americans paid out was $3.675-billion or $525-million on average each day.

   Of course, I’m estimating the demand for 2007 in my calculations, but based on the observations of this one late and reluctant shopper, I don’t see much empty space on the roads, or in the merchant parking lots.

   Merry Christmas to all! Please drive safe and enjoy the holidays.