Today is the anniversary of the 2006 apex for gasoline prices - - $3.036 gal was the average price for regular unleaded one year ago. But don’t expect a repeat of the 40 day fall one year ago that reduced prices by a stunning 60cts gal by the time the initial 2006 Autumn weekend was history.

   Gasoline futures markets visited $1.90 gal territory for the third time this week, but closed up a modest 2.08cts gal at $1.9548 gal. That is about 50cts gal below the Spring and Summer highs.

    In the trading universe, where mathematicians, statisticians, physicists, and econometric experts analyze such things, a failure to go below a key number three times in a row can signal a triple bottom. The failure of market weakness to take out a pivotal number can be interpreted as strength, and today probably was one of those days that in terms of pure symmetry may convince professionals that a ladder, rather than a chute, lies in the immediate future.

   But, I digress. Truth is that I didn’t pay enough attention in school when it came to the scientific subjects, and spent more time with the printed word than with theorems, cosines, sigma, the quadratic equation, and the dreaded Imaginary Number (bridges are built using that imaginary number!) So, I’ll confine my analysis to history, psychology, and the fundamentals that might soon come into play.

   I think we’ll see retail prices stabilize a bit from now through Labor Day. The average price should find relative equilibrium around $2.75 gal nationally, but there are many states where aggressive shoppers will be able to find their fuel for between $2.30-$2.60 gal.  If you look closely at the data that OPIS puts together for the AAA FuelGauge (see www.fuelgaugereport.com) you’ll find that only four states now have an average price above $3.00 gal. Of those four, one can certainly find gas for less than $3.00 gal if one shops around in Alaska, Connecticut, and Montana. If you live in Hawaii, you are out of luck, but as a New Jersey resident, I urge you to count your blessings in many other categories.

   Today was a modest trading day by oil market standards. Gasoline futures ranged from the aforementioned low of $1.90 gal to a high of $1.955 gal. Judged against yesterday’s closing price of $1.9342 gal, it was a modest swing of 2.8 percent. Yes, a swing of  3 percent or much more is a regular occurrence in oil futures markets, whereas it leads to much wailing and gnashing of teeth in the stock market.

   One reason for today’s modest wholesale rise: a number of private weather forecasting services said that there could be some tropical development in the Caribbean by late next week. We have reached the point where a prediction for partly cloudy weather in the tropics is enough to foment a rally. With a lot of investment banking money still invested in long speculative positions in oil, one wonders whether the billionaires of Wall Street have the technology to seed clouds. I would put our special forces on alert to watch out for hollowed out volcanic lairs where small planes might be dispatched.

   But sarcasm aside, inventories of gasoline aren’t exactly beaucoup, and the U.S. remains vulnerable to any interruption that might come from tropical weather. After a 40-50cts gal price decline, there is reason to believe that prices could stabilize on the mere threat of weather. We’re also particularly vulnerable in the second half of August, since there has been a slowdown in foreign refinery operations in Europe of late.

   Speaking of a slowdown, we have seen a slight downtick in gasoline demand of late. It looks as though we hit a peak when we used 407.82-million gallons per day in the week ending July 13.  Last week, we were down to 402.15-million gallons per day. On a weekly basis, we’re using about 40-million gal less than during that mid-July peak period. It doesn’t sound like the teeming masses have gone to car pooling, but it’s not the panic behavior forecast by some of the $4.00-$5.00 gal gas price pundits either.