Nationwide prices for unleaded regular are now down an average 40cts gal in 75 days. There is no August holiday for reference (although those wacky Canadians celebrated Labor Day earlier this week-- can’t they read a calendar?) but  we have seen a steady decline since Memorial Day.

   California prices dipped below $3.00 gal this morning, and they are down some 50cts gal in about 90 days. California hit its peak in early May when wholesale prices climbed above $2.80 gal. Those same wholesale prices now threaten to go below $2.00 gal, and that alone explains the retail downfall.

   Other states have witnessed much more dramatic slides. Oregon prices are off on average some 55cts gal in the last 80 days; Michigan unleaded regular is down 65cts gal in 75 days; and Ohio has dropped 70cts gal in 75 days. The difference between filling that 20 gallon tank on Memorial Day versus loading up in mid-August is commonly as much as $15.

   Note: for details on a state-by-state, or among individual metropolitan areas, visit the data series that OPIS puts together for AAA at www.fuelgaugereport.com

   I’ll have more comments on where we go from here in a screed that I’ll post later this evening. But I would caution against expecting a similar template to the 2006 version, where prices peaked on August 10 (at $3.0357 gal) and subsequently began a descent that brought about a sub-$2.50 gal level by the Autumnal equinox, and eventually brought gasoline below $2.20 gal by Election Day.

    If some of my many fellow cynics are wondering whether we won’t have a serious drop this year because it is not an election year, that is not the reason for my caution. Supplies are actually quite balanced, and there is still no safety net as true peak tropical storm season approaches. Demand is almost certainly ahead of last year, and imports in September and October may be a bit more scarce than last year. But perhaps more importantly, tons of money continue to flow into mostly long investments (or speculative buying positions) in oil, and that represents a secular change that may not yet have run its course since it began earlier this century.

   We’ll have a better idea of where we’re heading when the Department of Energy releases its weekly statistical bulletin in about 90 minutes. We currently have enough downward momentum to push many states below $2.75 gal in the next ten days. It’s a bit foggy behind that near term horizon, and I’ll hope for some clarity in the form of the government data at midmorning.