Nationwide pump prices eclipsed $2.54 gal this morning, and there is still probably another nickel of catch-up moves yet to be passed along to the American consumer. But the good news is that we could see a respite in the fitful rally that has added as much as 52cts gal to gas pumps in the last month.

Here’s an updated OPIS Oilmanac that yields a quick perspective.

Year                                Price per Gallon              Daily Consumer Gas Bill

2001                                  $1.435 gal                         $511.1-million

2002                                  $1.215 gal                         $444.4-million

2003                                  $1.206 gal                         $616.0-million

2004                                  $1.724 gal                         $655.0-million

2005                                  $2.017 gal                         $773.6-million

2006                                  $2.363 gal                         $903.2-million

Current                            $2.540 gal                         $980.4-million

   Okay, the bad news is that this 2007 rally is well ahead of the pace of past Spring “petronoia” rallies (perhaps a misnomer this year, since we won’t witness the vernal equinox until next week). But the good news is that it will be extremely difficult to match the March 12-May 5 performance of a year ago.

   In 2006, gasoline prices were 18cts gal lower on this day, but from there they added 14cts gal in the penultimate Winter week and went on to accelerate some 50cts gal higher by late April. I see little chance that 2007 national averages will match the $2.80 gal we saw last April 19, or the $2.90 gal plus quotes that we witnessed in the final week of April and early days of May.  The global market simply doesn’t have enough mojo to create a similar second quarter upwelling this year.

 This is little consolation to motorists living on the West Coast, where California prices will surpass $3.09 gal tomorrow, with Oregon and Washington likely to both move above $2.75 gal.

  In short, we’ll move higher through the rest of March, but modestly so. A number of large refineries will be restarted in the next three weeks, so cross your fingers. If they are restarted without incident, and we don’t see any new “events” at refining complexes across the country, then the numbers you see on the street in the next 30 days may represent the “as bad as it gets” category until midsummer.